Thursday, January 28, 2010

On Jay Killers

I'm aware I've been posting a ton about baseball recently, which is particularly surprising because it's the off-season, but there was an entry on Rob Neyer's blog that I found rather intriguing.

Randy Winn, Jay Killer To summarize his post, new New York Yankee Randy Winn will either (if he returns to his form of 2008 and before) be a steal as a fourth outfielder, or (if he plays like he did last year) be a waste of a roster spot.

The part that got to me, though, was the fact that Randy Winn is back in the American League. The Seattle Mariners traded him to San Francisco in 2005, and I remember releasing a serious sigh of relief. You see, I'd always thought Randy Winn to be an absolute Jay killer - he played for five years in Tampa, before finally moving out of the AL East to Seattle for about two-and-a-half years. I crunched his numbers, though, and lo and behold, they aren't particularly above his seasonal averages:


AB
Runs
Hits
2B
3B
HR
RBI
605
85
173
36
6
11
64

If he were to, theoretically, play an entire season against Toronto, his numbers look like this:

AB
Runs
Hits
2B
3B
HR
RBI
605
98
187
29
4
10
69

His numbers, actually, aren't all that different - he gets a few more hits, but actually suffers in power. However, why is it that he scores 115% more runs against the Jays?

Because of these numbers:

Average
OBP
Slugging
OPS
BB
K
SB
CS
Average Season
.286
.344
.418
.762
51
98
21
8
vs. Jays
.310
.418
.421
.839
61
94
33
18

That's the problem the Jays have, and why they can't stop him from scoring runs - they can't keep the bugger off of the bases. Granted, this is not a huge sample size (less than 300 at-bats; less than half a season), but seeing as he's back in their division, they could possibly be facing him more often. So, Jays fan everywhere are probably hoping that he does, indeed, revert back to his form of last season, and not the Jay killing years of old.

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